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at a conservative estimate stresses
gen.	по самым скромным подсчётам; без преувеличения (kee46)
cliche.	по самым скромным оценкам (или "подсчётам": "He isn't half as pumpkin-headed as you.' 'He is, at a conservative estimate, about twenty-seven times as pumpkin-headed as me." (P.G. Wodehouse) ART Vancouver)
scient.	по скромным подсчетам